Worries on the long term.

I was reading a book in which the author had given a chart of the Dow Jones Index. In 1997 July it was trading at 8333. Today, I checked up and the Dow is trading at 8325. In twelve years, the Dow has not moved at all. True, it has seen highs, and some lows, but t the end of a journey it is where it was! From 800 in 1982 to 8333 in 1997, the Dow increased 10 times in 15 years. But, what happened after that? The Index remains where it was, now going back to its average return (reversion to the mean!).

All above average movements will eventually come back to the average. If this principle is accepted, then the Indian markets may also be getting inside a long trading range. We moved up from 920 in 2003 April to 6300 in 2008 january – about 6 times in 4 and half years. That’s a lot! The Indian Market may now remain in a range for many years trying to reach the mean.