Why we cannot talk up the Market

Markets will go up when the buyers are stronger, more persistent than the sellers. This will happen when the buyers want to buy. Much as we like bull markets, we cannot push up the market simply by talking about it.
Remember, in January 2008, the Nifty was at its highs – 6300+. The market was talking of higher and higher levels, but we know what happened. The Nifty went into a bear market, reaching 3800 in just seven months.
My point is, there is a difference between talking about a market and what the market actually does. If the Market wants to go up or down, its direction will be visible on the charts. If the market has more determined sellers than buyers, it will fall, even if all the speakers on different channels suggest a rally.
What are the charts telling us ? The Nifty continues to be in a range. Last month, we saw the Nifty breaking down to make lower highs. In the past few days, the index has broken through resistance. By doing so, the short term trend has turned up. But, the Index continues to remain in the range.
The Nifty is enclosed in a fairly large trading range between 4200 and 4650. Inside this large range, currently, I see the Nifty inside a smaller range between 4400 and 4500. When the market is inside a trading range, the best trades are the breaks from these ranges, small or large.

Morning Call – What The two days of trading could bring

I write this post at 7:19 AM, so it is almost like a morning call for Thursday (today) and maybe Friday. Yesterday was a holiday in India.
Short term traders should begin by looking at the market environment.
US Markets S&P – down on Tuesday, on Wednesday.
Asia – Down on Wednesday, down as I write.
SGX Nifty – Down 58 points at 4460.
Nifty on Tuesday – Big surge leading to a breakout from two resistance levels – 4400, 4500
My Expectations for day trading/swing trading – Choppy market possible. This often happens after a big range expansion day (Tuesday). Keep volumes half of normal. A dip to 4400 is possible.
Strategy – This is an example of many strategies that can be used. Look for direction after first half hour of trading. If Nifty trades above the high hour range, then look to buy on small consolidation. If it trades lower, look to sell on consolidation. Stops may be at the other side of the range, or just beyond the consolidation.

Edited at 7:51 AM. Stocks to watch for a swing trade lasting few days – Hotel Leela, Indian Hotels.