What if they are wrong?

In earlier posts today, I offered analysis by Dow Theory Expert, who feels that we may be entering a bear market never seen before. He seems to be agreeing with Robert Preacher who is talking about Dow 400. (As I write, the  Dow is at 10280).
Now, experts have been known to be wrong. (including this writer who is not an expert, but still gets it wrong, many times).

Suppose the Market does not quite fall but remains within a trading range. Or, the Dow inches up every year, touching 20,000 in the next 10 years (That is about 7% annual compounded growth – quite good). Or, productivity with innovation brings about big growth in the USA and the Dow actually touches 30,000 by 2020, with the U.S. markets outperforming the BRICS.

Or, maybe th U.S. Markets actually fall to 7500 Dow where they develop a base and then start a new bull market. It is also possible that Mr Prechter ay be correct, but there is always the possibility that any analysis can go wrong.

My Point: No one knows the future. What we have in front of us is the trend. Depending on your time profile (day, swing, position, investor), follow the trend.

Richard Russel says worst bear market in history coming

“We’re now in the process of building one of the largest tops in stock market history. The result, I think, will be the most disastrous bear market since the ‘30s, and maybe worse.

Collapse of Fiat Currencies
I think the key element behind this great bear market will be the complete destruction of all fiat currencies. This has been a long time coming. Fiat currencies are “wealth” created by man. They are created without sacrifice, without labor, without risk, and without sweat. Basically they are an immoral device, created by secretive bankers.

Dow 400
If you look at the advance-decline ratio for the Dow you’ll note a subtle deterioration braking the trendline in May. My old friend, Bob Prechter, is talking about Dow 400. I used to think this was an absurd joke. I no longer think it’s a joke. The ultimate result will be a primary bear market shocking in duration and extent.

Gold
As for gold, its stellar performance goes on. This in the face of ominous warnings of various worried experts. The world (minus the U.S.) is loading up with the yellow metal with banks running out of vault space. The great 10-year primary bull market is moving into its 11th year. The bull market in gold attests to the systematic decline in the value of the dollar compared with real money – gold.

One of the greatest modern traders, John Paulson, who made billions on the housing collapse, has, I understand, all his personal money in gold-related items. Many individuals have already built gold profits beyond anything they have ever achieved before but the big profits, the astounding profits, will accrue when gold finally bursts loose of its prejudices and freely expresses itself.

Notes:
The above article consists of reformatted edited excerpts from the original for the sake of brevity, clarity and to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered.