Trying to forecast the market.

There is an inverse correlation between crude, commodity prices, interest rates and stock prices. This is what the theory is. The idea is the stock markets prosper when companies have lower input costs. Therefore, markets should move up when crude / interest rates etc move down.
The assertion is: Since both crude and interest rates are down, stock markets should move up.
This theory may not work in current market conditions since crude / interest may be falling due to reduced demand. The decline in their prices may not positively affect the market.
These discussions can go on and on without any result. Since trading is based only on actionable ideas, I never participate in such theoritical exercises. It is a waste of time (for me, that is).

After all of this theory, suppose the market refuses to go up. Then, what are you going to do about it ? Not much.

The same problem applies to a randomly selected indicator, such as the 50 week moving average. (see comments for earlier posts). the writer’s idea is that prices will revert back to the mean, in this case the 50 week MA. Nifty is at 2860 while 50 week MA is at 4200+. Therefore it means that prices should work their way towards the MA. Now, here is a thought. Let the market move between 2000 and 2700 for the next one year. The 50 week MA will come down to 2500 approx. Then the Nifty can move up from 2000 to 2500, satisfying the reversion to mean concept. But, frankly, this entire process will mean nothing.

Price is the one and only true indicator of market direction. It is not easy, but it works.