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The Lost Decade.

Balu writes:
Sir Just for imagination!! what if nifty trades in a range of 2250 and 6350 for a decade. Is it impossible? if election gap gets filled, then next etc etc..

My Notes: This is not imagination. It is quite possible that we may see such a scenario or  somthing similar. This means that 2250 support could push upto 3500 or 3800 and the resistance could move to 7500. Between these two levels, the markets could move around for a decade.

Vinod D says:
Dear Sudarshan, Could you please explain how one should trade the global indices through NSE…The expiry date and contract months given in the NSE website is a bit confusing..

My Notes:
There are two sets of contracts, monthly and quarterly. This should get you started.  I am not certain on the effectiveness of trading in the S&P when U.S. markets are closed.

Shazia has a detailed explaination of how psychology can create a breakdown of the 4000 levels. You should read his comments to understand this. Market levels are only for our undestanding. The market does no care for any level. It does what it wants. Also, sometimes, the levels become self-fulfilling.

Amarjeet says:
sir, please give example on chart how 4650 support level.

My Notes: Here is the chart.

chart

Nifty at new lows for this bear market

The benchmark index has broken a minor technical level – 4800. As I write this, we are trading at 4780, below the 4800 psychological number. Significant technical support on the charts comes around 4650. Now, the markets will do what they want, so this decline does not have to reach 4650. My point is: Around 4650, we should become alert for signs of support.

What about risk reward for investors? This makes interesting reading now. Assume that the Nifty could touch the downside target of 4000. Buyers at current levels have a risk of 780 points. Suppose they hold on while the Index goes to 4000 and then starts a new bull market. Eventually, the Index could come back to 4780 and at some point of time cross 6350. So, the risk for investors is 780 points and the reward may be 1500 points. Added risk comes in form of time – we do not know how much time the process of going to 4000 and back to 6350 will take. Then again, neither of the two targets, 4000 or 6350 are actually assured. What do readers say?

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