Refco Group Fraud

The Refco Group was one of the largest independent brokers & futures traders in the USA. The company had a successful IPO, then just a few months later (In October 2005) went bankrupt.
What happened ?
http://www.bloomberg.com/ report:
Prosecutors said, the owners were hiding tens of millions of dollars in customer trading losses. Later, their goal was to sell Refco at a price that would pay off the accumulated debt and ensure them a profit.
In addition to hiding losses, prosecutors said Bennett and Grant (owners) lied to Refco’s lenders and investors about whether the firm had a proprietary trading operation. They also inflated revenue and moved expenses off Refco’s books, prosecutors said.
Warning: Avoid brokerage companies in India that have proprietary trading operations in F&O. Ask yourself, why should the broker himself trade in F&O using high leverage and public funds ? If he is so keen on trading, let him set up a seperate trading entity, deposit margin like all other traders and keep his own trading and public funds at arms length.
Almost all the problems currently in the USA and Europe have come about because of proprietary trading with high leverage. In India, a wise regulator will ban such trading. Till that happens, stay away from brokers who trade on their own account. Most good brokers in India do not do so. Stay with them.

This is my second post for the evening. To read the first post, discussing the Nifty, scroll down.

Probably not a time to go long

The Nifty is facing heavy weather around 4600 where substantial overhead resistance exists. We have also seen an 800 point rally in the Nifty. The time has come for some kind of a correction.
The chart patterns made in the last two days do not help the bulls. Both days have seen DOJI – where the open and close are roughly equal. A DOJI suggests indecision in the market. Both days have also seen long upper shadows. The shadow is created when the price moves up but meets with resistance, quickly retreating back. The shadow, when visible at the top of a rally is indicating that the bulls are slowly losing their strength.
This then is no time to start buying. If you have plus (long) positions, then consider taking profits / loss. A move below 4500 will indicate that the short term trend may have turned down.
Fresh long positions should be created when the Nifty is able to move above 4600 decisively. This requires a close above 4600 for more than one day.
Then, the area between 4500 and 4600 is some kind of a no trade zone.
CRUDE
The price of crude fell to $118 – a three month low. We have to see the decline in context of a rally from $60 to $147. In this context, the decline is probably a correction rather than a bear market. Of course, we can be wrong. But the benefit of doubt should go to the trend, which has been up for the past two years.
Keep visiting, I hope to post again before midnight.