Now it looks like a trading range & Choppy days likely.

Well, we had a down day today, so the 4700 support and 5200 resistance appears to get a bit more confirmed. I believe we remain in a bear market. Bear market rallies can be sharp and swift. At some point, these rallies will face resistance. If we go above 5200, the market will be giving a message of strength, at least in the short term.

I am not appearing on TV since I am taking some time off – a few weeks.

Ananthan Thangavel writing in Seeking Alpha (read it Here ) says that the Gold market may be ready for a decline. He gives these reasons:

1. Market Sentiment Too Bullish
2. Volatility Too Great
3. Retail Buyers Too Bullish
4. Buyers Expecting QE3
5. Equities Not Negatively Correlated to Gold

Mr Thangavel concludes:

We believe maintaining a neutral stance on gold at this time is a prudent posture. We would look to establish short exposure on a sustained crack in prices, but with current gold volatility at an all-time high, such a position is risky. Unfortunately, shorting hysteria is ten times as difficult as buying fear, and picking an entry and exit point on a short gold trade is very difficult. However, as the September Fed meeting approaches, the gold market should begin pricing in the reduced chance of quantitative easing, and prices should begin to fall, possibly using the catalyst of the Fed’s September statement.

My Notes: Maybe. If Gold starts to make a top, it should come up on the charts. Also, it is not easy to go short in a metal which is prone to so much volatility. Much easier to exit out of long positions.

Choppy days likely

The Nifty has rallied strongly, almost 450 points from its 4700 low. Now, the Index faces strong resistance as it tries to cross the 5200 gap. It is possible that the market may struggle to cross this threshold for some days. The short term trend is up so dips should find support. This means that rallies will face resistance at the 5200 threshold, while dips should find support because the short term is up. This leads to a choppy market scenario.

Answers:
Rocky asks:  “want to clarify sthing like in real time technical analysis the chart showing 5 min, 15 min and so-on suppose if we took a position @ 9;25 and position going against our favour so we have to wait till 9;30 in span of 4 min the prices can be moved an where so how to tackle this situation. ”

My Notes: There is a trading time frame. This is the time frame used for taking entry and exit decisions. You can have other time frames on your chart as part of your strategy, but there will be one, clearly understood trading period. If this period is 15 minutes, then you are expected to wait for the 15 minute period to be over before taking any trading decisions.
Suppose you are trading on 15 minutes. You have a rule that you will sell below the low of the current bar if XYZ happens. At 9.25 you notice there is a strong chance of XYZ happening and prices are falling. So, they could be lower by 9.30 when your 15 minute ends. But, no one knows what the next 5 minutes will bring. Maybe a sharp rally will cancel the XYZ pattern by 9.30 or even create a long legged DOJI which will not be violated on the downside, or something else..

Therefore, the trader who is working on a specific time frame should wait for the time-frame to be completed before taking action. If you have a stop-loss or target, then that value can be triggered anytime. But, if you have a rule based on the bars in the time frame, then you have to wait for the bars to be completed.