The Nifty, as one comment says, pulled back for about one hour before continuing with its up move. The Index now moves into the 3400 – 3500 zone where it faces resistance. Given the strong momentum, these resistance zones may or may not offer resistance.
Traders should follow the up trend. It seems unlikely that this rally will end quickly. Go with the trend (up!).
Tushar says:
There are various questions I raise?
Q-1) What made you suggest @ CNBC today that go short on Nifty, while neither trend nor momentum has changed?
Q-2) Today’s rally put’s a question mark(?) on our coupling with the world markets.While other’s were down we closed up.Just to clarify..
My Notes:
In the morning, all world markets were down. The Nifty opened lower by about a 100 points. Now when there is a gap, the two possibilities are: the gap is a trending gap, so go with it. Or, fade it, meaning that assume that gap will be filled. In the first few minutes of trading, when the interview was being conducted, the Nifty was trading at the open, giving no signs of a rally. Thus, it seemed that the day should be a trending day. The suggestion was given for day traders, I did point out that the trend is up and buying should be done on dips.
What happened later:
We were ready to sell on a break below the lows made in the first 15 minutes. That never happened! At 11:10 the Nifty crossed the intra day high and started moving up. All our intra day systems went long between 3185 and 3200. At that time it appeared to be a high risk trade. As events proved, what we think and what the markets do are different. My idea that we are looking for a trend day changed when the Nifty went on making intra day highs. This is a risk while giving ‘calls’ on TV. Markets can change quickly.
[If the 15 mnutes lows had been broken I would have gone short. A subsequent rally would have caused me to get stopped out, and maybe enter long positions. The fact that this did not happen is pure luck rather than skill. I have explained that probability is a friend of the trader. Sometimes market moves against us, sometimes in our favor. If we are consistent in our rules, the probability favors us in the long run].
Today’s rally tells us:
(a) Indian markets are showing relative strength as compared to most world markets. They do not suggest that we are decoupled.