Nifty – Long Term View

A weekly chart for the Nifty shows the possibility of a major breakdown below 4500. There is a sharp rally in 2009 between the Nifty level of 2900 and 4540 approx. This vertical rally pushed the Index up quickly. That was great. But, now, on the downside, the straight line rally does not have any support levels, so there will be no defense if the Nifty begins a decline below 4500.

The area between 4500 and 4700 should provide a fair amount of support. I do feel that eventually, the Nifty should go below 4500, but that is  perception. Even if this event happens, we can expect a fair amount of movement inside the 4500 – 4800 zone.

Chart below:

Afternoon review

The Nifty remains in a downtrend – this much is obvious. For the position trader, there is only one trade – look to hold on to short positions or sell on rallies. For the swing trader, the Nifty is providing some sense of receiving support around 4750. If this support holds, an upswing is possible. The first sign of support will come if nifty trades above today’s high. This can be possible only on Friday, since. tomorrow is a holiday.

Any move below 4750 will be considered as a continuation of the down move, therefore, should be sold into.