Markets are still confused !

MARKETS

Big declines on Friday saw the Nifty touch 4800, and then suddenly rally back to 4940. So what is the market telling us? Does it say that the decline was overdone & not relevant at all OR does it tell us that the rally after the decline was just a correction? Confusing, to say the least.

I am keeping this simple enough. Momentum continues to fall on the daily chart. A reversal of falling momentum will be the first sign that the correction is probably over.

DUBAI

Defaults by the Dubai conglomerate may lead to (a) Similar defaults by other Soveriegn countries OR (b) remain a one – off case, where the company + country created a real estate bubble that could not be sustained. Experts differ on what it could mean. It seems that it was a real estate bubble rather than a soverign default. The gulf countries have $1 trillion in assets so they can probably solve an $80 billion loan issue.

GOLD

David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff says that Gold is becoming a crowded trade but it can still rise to $3000 before the secular bull market ends in Gold. Well, my own targets were about $2000, but it seems I was conservative.

CeTA – Chartered Technical Analyst

An email asks:  “i am a graduate in science. i havebeen teaching mathematics from last 10 years for +2 level. oflate i developed interest in technical analysis.

if i pursue CeFT course, what are the job prospects. will i be absorbed as a technical analyst in any brokerage firm. please tell me  in detail.”

My Notes: If you wish to be a Technical Analyst then the CeFT certification will provide you with better chances of a job. But, CeFT should be done with a desire to upgrade your TA skills rather than to take a job.