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Invest or Wait ?

Tajinder asks:
“i want to know that is this a bear mkt. rally or now the time has come to invest the money in to the mkt. I am wonder to see the behave of the mkt. because many large cap stocks are still stands on 2550-2600 level like L&T, SBI and some more, Those stocks which are heavily shorted by the traders that moved up from theirs lows. So please tell me i should invest now or should wait to next dip.”

My Notes:
How I approach the investment cycle.
1. Identify a stock I want to own if price was much lower (fair price)
2. Wait for a dip, as deep as possible. Sometimes I wait for many years.
3. Buy half of the planned quantity.
4. Wait patiently. if the stock falls and becomes half, i will buy the balance quantity provided nothing else has changed.
5. Stock selection: good managements, share price falls due to business cycles and not due to ‘news’.

While Tajinder may not be aware, my feeling is that the desire is for trading in the market, because investments do not need market timing with any kind of precision.
To answer the questions, is this a bear market or new bull market ? I cannot say. We will all be wise after the event. If you wish to trade, this is not a good time. Nifty is up by 450 points (almost 18%, I think). You have to wait for a dip.
My sense is that this is a bear market rally.
What is the difference ? In a bear market, new lows will / may be made. That’s possible even now.

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