How to determine the trend of the market.

Richard Russell, in his excellent book on Dow Theory, says:

The trend of the market is determined as follows: successive rallies advancing above previous high points with ensuing declines terminating above preceding low points are taken as bullish indication. Rallies that fail to penetrate preceding high points with ensuing declines breaking preceding low points carry bearish indication.
In other words, Higher Highs and Higher Lows constitute a bull market, while Lower Highs and Lower Lows represent a bear market.

For the past few weeks, the Nifty has been making lower highs – 5630, 5500, 5400, 5378, 5302. The lower lows pattern is not symmetrical with the lower highs, but it is visible. It is not symmetrical because after every lower high, we did not have a lower low. We can establish that lows have found support around 5150. If the Nifty closes below 5150, the pattern of lower lows will be confirmed, giving a clear down trend. We should find out next week if the Index is entering a downtrend.