Forecasts for the Nifty.

The two forecasts came in the comments section. Thanks for sharing.

Danish says: “I think this is the first wave of the larger up-move, if we go by the price behavior. Also, we are in the fifth wave of that first wave and chances are again that the fifth wave will fail rather than completing its logical target because time-wise we are already there. Also, major world markets are running out of steam but I don’t know whether that will have any impact on Indian markets or not. But once the correction starts, it won’t end soon.”

Kapil Gupta (Kaps) says: My Elliot wave counts are different. And my calculation says that we are undergoing A-B-C irregular flat correction since June 12,09.The ensuing C-wave of the correction should take the nifty to 3500-3600 by around this Diwali.After this should begin the 3rd wave of the uptrend (weekly basis) for nifty for possible target of 5500-6000 by January. Please give yr comments.Regards

Just to complete this forecast, let me refer to Charles Nenner.

I watched Mr Nenner’s interview with CNBC America in Feb 2009. He was saying the the S&P is bottoming out and we will see a rally that will take the S&P to 1000 in just a few months. At that time, the index was around 700, pessimism was around us, so this forecast sounded like fantasy. Then Feb came and went, no rally. The bottom was made in first week march, and the subsequent rally did take the S&P above 1000.

Mr Nenner again appeared on CNBC America on Sept 9. He said “The market is following the 1937 bear market when there was a similar rally. The U.S. market will top out in mid October after which the previous lows will be revisited. Gold will continue its up move, top out by Feb 2010.”. That’s it.

My Notes: Given below is a chart for the Nifty wave count starting from March. I feel that the October 2008 start fits the wave counts better. Have a look. Meanwhile, please remember that we are at 15 month highs. I have two points. (a) The 10% gains of the past 10 days are unsustainable. We will see a consolidation or dip as the Market removes this excess. Such markets are difficult to trade. But staying with the trend (up) should help. A close below the lows of the last 2 days – 4931 will be required to change the short term trend to down. (b) A correction of the entire up move from 2200 to 5000+ will surely come. We do not know when.