As the Nifty goes nowhere, it may be wise to focus on trading in individual stocks.
Traders may like to select at the most two stocks to trade in. The trading may be intra day, or, swing trading involving the overnight carrying of positions.
The first step in a trading plan is to determine the trend. As of now, the Nifty remains clearly in an uptrend. Therefore, stocks may be traded with an upward bias. This means, identify stocks which (a) may be ready for an upmove after a dip. (b) Stocks already in a rally, which may continue to move up.
Since I like to buy dips, I will focus on this part of stock selection. Look for a short term oscillator to become oversold. Share prices must dip with the decline in the oscillator. If you wish, you can use a 5 period RSI on end of day charts. If the RSI moves below 40, then goes up, this could well qualify as a dip that could be ending.
Some stocks that come up for Thursday, include, Grasim, HCC, HDFC and ITC. This is not a recommendation to buy any of these stocks. I am explaining how a short list can be created. Look at the charts and pick up two stocks. Now, identify a stop loss, a possible traget and buy on signs of strength during the day.
Also consider identifying stocks on themes. Today, the themes were: Reliance cap will gain because the Govt is taking a neutral stance in the brothers cases, and, IT stocks could be in flavor since the Rupee was falling. The actual buying / selling should be done on the basis of intra day price action.
Is this a breakdown?
A small trading range between 4650 and 4710 may have finally broken down yesterday after one big false move. While the Nifty closed at 4625, well below the 4650 support, today’s premarket suggests that the decline is likely to continue.
While targets for the downside are difficult to estimate, suppport based on earlier price bars, comes initially at 4570. We should not get attached to one single number, rather think of this support as a zone. The next area of support is 4500 to 4480.
But, how do you trade? The day trader should take both sides of the trend, up and down. The short term trend is down, therefore, it is possible to go short.
The Position trader should not buy the dips until and unless markets finally find a low and stabilise.
If you have existing long positions, then, follow the stop losses strictly.