Nifty is up, inside the trading range.

The lesson is to try and stay with the main trend. Just in case we forget, the main trend is up. But, with all of the up and down moves, the Nifty remains inside the trading range between 4950 and 5100. Given today’s strong up thrust, we should expect the support to shift up and probbaly create a new trading range. As of now, it is not easy to visualize a runaway market. This could mean a slow and steady upward shift rather than a big sudden up move.
Of course, I could be wrong. But, nothing is lost if a big thrust comes instead of a steady up move.

What are the prospects of a reaction? Now, the markets can correct any time. As the days go by, a sense will develop that ‘this time it is different’ and the markets will not correct. That will then be a danger point, because extreme optimism is the beginning of a deep correction.

Now, if you do not go short and the market suddenly corrects, you are certainly left out. But, much worse is your position if you are short and the market resumes its up move, as it did today. So, while it is thrilling to sell at the top, it may NOT be good trading.

I will try to set up one more post tonight. Cheers!