The Uptrend Continues.

The Nifty moved up after remaining for five days in a narrow range. This has been the behavior of the Nifty – a Big Range breakout then consolidate for many days, then take the next move. Back to back gains are not frequent. More common is the pattern of Expansion – contraction for many days, then expansion.

Will the Nifty touch 5150, its pattern target, and, cross it? This question can be answered in terms of probabilities. So far, in this uptrend, all breakouts have exceded their pattern targets. What sectors will lead th charge? My sense is that the current up move has been broad based with banks outperforming. This position is likely to continue.

Will there be a pullback to enable those who were left out, to enter? Well, the markets seldom work according to predictable patterns. If the popular demand is for a pullback, the market may simply keep on going up, till everyone says “there will be no pullback, so let me enter now”. This sense has already started coming in. Last Sunday, on a visit to Gurgaon to see some properties (too expensive, not value for money!), I asked the real estate agent: “Will property prices come down if share prices all?”. He looked at me and asserted: “Share prices will not fall”. Sure.