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Pi asks:
a. while looking at levels or charts, should one look at spot levels or futures levels. quite often they would be in tandem, but not so at time. i mean what is the technical analysis theoretical view on this.
My notes:
Always look at the spot levels when doing analysis. If you trade futures, then use the futures levels when determining actual entry and exit signals. As an example: today, June 15, my Nifty end of day chart has given a cycle turning signal suggesting that the up trend may be changing into a correction / consolidation. Now, attempts to go short / buy on dips / sell on rallies, will be made with 60 minute futures charts.
There is one more question:
b. if one is trading a quant system, is 100% discipline must or can one in limited circumstances use one’s discretion based on levels or charts or market conditions? If so, when ?for example in a trend following system i was long on friday, but having seen that mkt reversed twice earlier frm arnd here i booked and took a short. that infact was a deviation from my quant system, but a very good call to take. later in the day the system itself turned short.
My Notes:
The correct answer should be: Man’s brain is still superior to the machine. Your perception of external conditions will usually be superior to the system, as you found out now and probably many times again. The problem lies elsewhere. Suppose, you exited and then the trend reasserted itself. Then the trend picked up and the system went on to make a 200 point profit. Remorse and decision regret will take over. Worse, if you went against the system signal, now you find yourself losing while your system is (theoritically) making money. Now, how do you get out? Believe me, when I override my system, 8 out of 10 times my sense is correct. The other 2 times, literally kill my performance compared to the systems.
Therefore, let your system trades be. Take an independent discretionary trade. Apply exit rules and trade it seperately. Those 2 out of 10 times, you will hav the courage to take a loss and get out becuase you know that your system trade is making up. This is what I do.
Rishi asks:
If I buy 500 BEEs @ 460 = 230000/- &
SellJul 4600 Call @ 255/-
Case 1 if nifty closes at 4600 on ExpProfit/Loss = ?
Case 2 if nifty closes at 4800 on Exp Profit/Loss = ?
Case 3 if nifty closes at 4400 on Exp Profit/Loss = ?
Of-course wot will be Break-Even-Point (BEP) (BEP) (BEP) (BEP)?
My notes: many readers here will be very good at these calculations. if I get it wrong, please leave a comment.
case 1: nifty closes at 4600. You make 255 points.
case 2: if nifty closes at 4800. You will still make 255 points. (Surprise!)
Case 3: if nifty closes at 4400. You will make 55 points.
Break even point in all scenarios emains the same: 4345
Now I can suggest one more possibility. What happens if the Nifty closes at 3800? Think about it.
Analyst comments on TV
Gurvi says” surprised by your comments on Friday.You said to go long on this market….but from last few days you’re saying to go short(every rise is an opportunity to exit).”
My Notes:
This was on Friday morning. The Nifty had opened at 4650 and number of technical inputs suggested a rally to 4700. The question on CNBC was: what should the trader do now: I said, buy. We saw a 50 point rally to 4703. The question was for an immediate day trading strategy. Also, sometimes it works, and, sometimes it does not work. In earlier posts, I have explained why following analyst comments may not be the ideal day trading strategy.
CNBC Awaaz has started a new show. On thursday, at 2 PM they asked me: give a Nifty strategy. I said (all numbers for June futures): go long now (4655) , keep a stop of 4610 and look for a target of 4700 – 4710 tomorrow. Now, the Nifty touched 4703. Did the strategy make money for the trader or did he wait for 4710 only to be stopped out at 4610 later in the day. So, these ideas are just that = ideas. If the trader does not apply his common sense, he is not going anywhere.
Frankly, if the trader practices, gains experience, he / she does not need any analyst inputs.