The intermediate trend is up. The minor trend is up. The primary trend is down, as we remain in a bear market.
The Nifty faces strong resistance between 2900 and 3000. After a 20% rally from 2500 to 3000, the Index may either consolidate or go through a dip.
NARROW RANGE (NR) + A DOJI
The Nifty made a near Doji today, opening and closing at almost the same levels. It also made a narrow range. The Index has been in narrow range patterns for the last three days, suggesting the possibility of a big move soon enough. We cannot say what the direction of the move will be – up or down. In an uptrend, the move out of a narrow range bar should be up. But, the primary trend remains down, while the market is inside a resistance zone. Thus, traders should be willing and ready to trade in whatever direction the market breaks into.
This also means that we should not argue with the market. If market is moving up, trend is up. we cannot, and, should not try the force our views on the market.
Not Good News here
Chinese electricity output fell 9.6% in November (Bloomberg)
Industrial production is plunging around the world as demand dries up. China’s electricity output fell by 9.6 percent in November from a year earlier, today’s figures showed. Pig- iron production fell 16.2 percent. Raw steel declined 12.4 percent. Steel products tumbled 11 percent.
(U.S.) States running out of unemployment funds (NY Times)
With unemployment claims reaching their highest levels in decades, states are running out of money to pay benefits, and some are turning to the federal government for loans or increasing taxes on businesses to make the payments.
Public turning away from Equities (Wall Street Journal)
The dissolution of the investment banks and the collapse of several credit markets already ensured that the next several years would see a reduction in leverage-induced returns. But the drumbeat of news is pointing to another result: A long-term pullback from Wall Street by an investing public that now sees the rules of the game changing on a daily basis.