Weekend Nifty

Friday evening is a good time to review the market, take a slightly longer term view, wander about, sit back and relax.
The Very long term:
This is a long term bull market. Such secular bull runs last for 18 to 20 years. We started in 2003, so there is a long way to go. To classify this trend, we will call it ” long-lasting”.
Within this long lasting bull run, there will be many bull and bear cycles. We will call such moves – Primary trend.
Currently, the primary trend is down. This is a bear market.
Moves that last three weeks to three months inside a primary trend are called intermediate movements. We had an intermediate uptrend that pushed up the Index 22% in one month. This trend is completed, and the intermediate trend is now sideways or down, dpending on how you measure the swings. Some of this is subjective.
Within the intermediate trend, we have minor moves, but we are not concerned about these moves here, although as traders, the minor moves are of great relevance, when trading.
If we are in a long lasting bull market, why are prices not going up ?
Within the long lasting market, prices will move up and down – both. We are in the down cycle. It may last for another one year. Then, a revival may start which could take one or even two years before touching the highs made in January 2008. Also, if you bought RNRL at 250, it may take five years before you get those levels.
Has the bear market found its lows in July 2008, at 3800 ?
Too early to say this. At 4325, we are just 500 points away from this low. Another crash or debacle can bring us down to those levels, rather quickly. Also, bear markets must be given time to complete their purpose – remove all excesses from the system. Seven months is not enough.
If this is a Long Lasting bull market, then more money will be made by bulls.
Yes, absolutely.
Patience is the key.
Also, your ability to finance your purchases. If you are investing on leverage, then it is unlikely that you will benefit from the long lasting bull market.
Finally, the quality of your equity holdings. The portfolio with blue chips will benefit much more than a portfolio with all sorts of momentum stocks.