Market forecasts.

The bull market is not over.

That said: the easy money in the stock market has been made. The issues that confront investors are very complex now and the influences are truly global. Change will come rapidly and volatility will be high. We are in the post-crisis period, but the aftershocks of the crisis are severe and troubling. We believe that markets will continue to climb this wall of worry, as they usually do. We do not see any of the signs of complacency that characterize the end of a bull market. We do see an abundance of fear and uncertainty. Those characterizations suggest that stock prices can and will go higher . —  David Kotok, Chairman, quoted in ritholtz.com

Thinking Ahead
To think ahead, you need to start with historical perspective. If you are open-minded, accepting facts whether bullish or bearish, you must have noticed the positive changes in the last few months. One-by-one, the list of worries — including recession, skepticism about earnings, the Hindenburg omen, political uncertainty, the head-and-shoulders pattern, etc. — has been reduced.

Is it a world without worry? Of course not. The employment and housing problems remain paramount. If there were no problems, we would already be at Dow 20K. Potential investors who wait to act until all problems are solved will wind up buying at Dow 20K.

On balance, the investment world has become much more attractive. Meanwhile, stocks prices have only just regained the pre-Lehman levels of 2008. — Blog: A Dash of Insight

Bubbles
“The US monetary policies may be positive for Asia, but these policies could also cause bubbles in emerging markets via capital flows.”
— Marc Faber on QE2

Questions on Stop Loss

Anas Elias Batla uses three different MACD indicators, each with a different set of inputs. He located lower highs in the MACD while the Nifty was making higher highs. He asks:

1) Can the whole movement be considered as A NEGATIVE DIVERGANCE on the daily charts , (of nifty with macd indicator)

My Answer:  Yes. When the Indicator makes lower highs while price makes higher highs, we get a negative divergence. But do not rush into conclusions, read the answer to the next question.

2) if yes, than does that mean , that there is further downside in store for the NIFTY INDEX.

My Answer: A negative divergence does not automatically mean downside for prices. A negative divergence warns of the possibility of a decline in prices. But, remember, a possiibility is just that – it may or may not come about. So, you still end up watching prices – support, resistance, lower lows candlesticks and so on to get a sense of the trend. Therefore it makes sense to listen to indicator divergences when they are in the direction of the intermediate trend. Then, they have strong possibility of actually working out.
3) Can the divergence fail, and when it is possible to confirm the failure.
My Answer: I have answered this quesion above. Divergences will fail, more often than not. When price makes a higher high, that is a sign that the divergence failed to work out.

Murali says:

I was also facing the same issue with stochastics for day trading with on one minute average chart for Nifty. But I found that all oscillators have this disadvantage with water fall decline.

So i used MACD to complete it. In the macd when the divergence bar is lower / smaller than the previous one, I go short. The reverse holds for going long.

Please suggest me on this method.

My Notes:
Well, Murali, you have a decent intraday method. I find it difficult to watch one minute bars, leave alone trade with it. But, if you are managing to use one minute bars, good for you. My advice is: focus on price action more. Slowly, you should be able to trade intraday without much help from indicators. That should be your objective.
Pankaj asks: Where do you get your live feed for stocks and commodities?