There is no substitute for hard work.

Well, on a more serious note, the question in our minds is: this rally shows to signs of stopping. How do we do our analysis? One way is to look at our charts to determine the nature of such up moves. I am looking at the up swing and subsequent corrections for the past few months. What is the average duration of the rally?

On this chart, the number of days in each upswing have been labelled. Now, each upswing has its own reason for moving higher or stopping at some point. My point is: we cannot create an average that says: okay the average is xx so market should stop moving up at xx days. Each swing will be different. But, we can say: the market has been making swings of 4 – 5 days. The current swing has lasted 7 days. This should be compared with the initial up move from May lows, which went on for 9 days. Therefore (a) we may be in a strong trend, and, (b) we may be in the final phase of a minor uptrend. One or both of these are possible.

This was analysis, not an attempt to generate buy / sell signals. But, all analysis must eventually lead to actionable ideas. Please share your ideas through comments.

More notes:

A free two week trial to Market club is available. I hope readers take advantage of it. No payment information is required.